Early voting data points to Democratic edge as U.S. midterms near
Voting data from more than 30 U.S. states is showing the first signs of a Democratic turnout edge in the November midterms, with more. Early — full details…
Early voting data from more than 30 U.S. states is showing the first signs of a Democratic turnout edge in the November midterms, with more than 700,000 Americans already casting ballots a month before Election Day. In several battleground states, Democrats are making up a bigger share of ballot requests than they did at the same point in 2024.
The numbers do not predict the result. Ballots are secret, and early voters are only a slice of the electorate. Still, the pattern mirrors summer polling, special election results and primary turnout that have all pointed to stronger Democratic motivation heading into Nov. 3.
Ballot requests tilt blue in key states
In Iowa, Democrats account for 67% of ballot requests so far, up from 54% at this point in 2024. In Pennsylvania, the figure is 66%, compared with 62% two years ago. Maine stands at 57%, up from 53%, while North Carolina data show Democrats at 42%, up from 36% in 2024.
That said, the picture is mixed. In all of those states except Iowa, Democrats were doing even better at this point in 2022 than they are now.
Short of a surge. That’s the caution.
CNN’s early-voting tracker, built with Associated Press and Catalist data, notes that comparisons with earlier cycles come from Catalist, which works with Democrats, academics and nonprofit advocacy groups. The tracking also excludes states with fewer than 1,000 votes reported so far this cycle.
What the numbers can and cannot say
Early voting often favors older voters and tends to lean less Republican than the overall electorate. It can offer clues about enthusiasm and mobilization, especially in contests for control of the House and Senate. It cannot tell anyone how those ballots were cast.
That matters this fall. With as many as two-thirds of all midterm votes expected to come by mail or through early voting, the opening stretch of turnout has taken on outsized attention from both parties.
The next real test comes on Election Day, when states begin reporting results after polls close. Until then, the early numbers will keep getting watched one request at a time.
Source: cnn.com
