AI Could Add More U.S. Jobs Than It Removes, but 11 Million Workers May Need New Careers
As artificial intelligence reshapes work in the United States, the bigger test may be helping people move between careers. A McKinsey Global Institute report...
As artificial intelligence reshapes work in the United States, the bigger test may be helping people move between careers. A McKinsey Global Institute report estimates that automation and AI could reduce demand for about 36 million jobs by 2035, while economic growth creates demand for roughly 41 million elsewhere.
The report’s base case says about 11 million workers — roughly 7% of the workforce — would need to leave their current occupations. The estimate ranges from 6 million to 16 million. McKinsey argues that jobs will remain available, but workers may struggle to reach them.
The challenge is moving between fields
Many affected workers could stay in their occupations as demand shifts within their industries. Others would need to change fields entirely, such as moving from retail into healthcare. McKinsey estimates that about 770,000 people a year would have to make such a switch, around 3.6 times the historical average.
That pace would mark a sharp shift. Workers have changed employers less often than they did in the late 1990s and early 2000s, the report says, apart from a brief increase during the pandemic.
Still, the required career changes are not without precedent. About 788,000 workers a year made similar moves from 2019 to 2022, a period that included the pandemic, without lasting damage, according to the report.
More jobs, different workers
McKinsey’s findings frame AI’s effect not simply as a count of jobs lost or gained, but as a mismatch between the occupations workers leave and the roles that expand. The report’s estimates suggest that growth could more than offset declining demand overall, while leaving millions needing new career paths.
That transition could be substantial. McKinsey’s latest estimate is close to its 2023 projection that 12 million people would switch careers by 2030. Its authors describe the central problem as worker mobility rather than a shortage of jobs.
How quickly workers can make those moves will shape the labor market through 2035. The report’s forecast puts the focus on whether people can cross into growing fields at a pace far above the historical norm.
Source: fortune.com
