Bank Indonesia Sees Rupiah at 16,430 Per Dollar in 2026
Bank Indonesia projects the rupiah at around Rp16,430 per U.S. dollar in 2026, above the government’s APBN assumption. The central bank says stability…
JAKARTA — kurs usd hari ini is drawing fresh attention after Bank Indonesia projected the rupiah at around Rp16,430 per U.S. dollar in 2026, a level slightly stronger than the government’s macroeconomic assumption in the 2026 State Budget of Rp16,500.
The projection matters because it frames where the central bank thinks the currency may trade next year, and it also shows how much room BI believes it still has to defend stability. That defense is not cheap.
BI keeps the rupiah in focus
Bank Indonesia Governor Perry Warjiyo said the average exchange rate forecast was Rp16,430, “almost the same as the forecast of Rp16,440,” during a working meeting with House Commission XI on Wednesday, November 12, 2025. He said global uncertainty is likely to stay high next year, especially with the risk of foreign capital outflows.
“We continue to strive to maintain exchange rate stability with interventions in various instruments,” Perry said.
BI has been intervening in several markets, including the non-deliverable forward market, the domestic non-deliverable forward market, and the spot market. Perry said that stabilization effort has contributed to a decline in the country’s foreign exchange reserves.
Indonesia’s reserves stood at US$155.7 billion at the end of 2024, then fell to US$148.7 billion in October 2025. BI, however, still aims to keep the rupiah exchange rate around Rp16,000 per U.S. dollar.
Why the projection matters
For households and businesses, the signal is straightforward. A weaker rupiah can raise the cost of imported goods, tighten margins for firms that rely on dollar-linked inputs, and keep pressure on prices that are sensitive to exchange-rate swings. For exporters, the picture can look different, but only if costs do not rise just as fast.
That is why BI’s projection is more than a technical number. It helps set expectations for pricing, hedging, and planning across the economy. Traders watch it. Importers do too. So do companies that need dollar funding.
The currency also moved unevenly through 2025. BI said the average exchange rate was Rp16,347 per U.S. dollar in the first quarter, then Rp16,496 in the second quarter, before strengthening to Rp16,365 in the third quarter. By the end of October 2025, the average exchange rate in the fourth quarter had been recorded at Rp16,630 per U.S. dollar.
Global pressure stays in the background
Perry said the projections remain realistic because global conditions are still uncertain. He pointed to the chance of capital leaving emerging markets and said BI will keep using market interventions to support the currency.
He also said not all BI interventions directly reduce foreign exchange reserves. That matters because it suggests the central bank is trying to balance pressure in the market without exhausting its buffers too quickly.
The latest projection leaves the rupiah near a level that is still above the government’s budget assumption, but close enough to show how narrow the room remains. And BI’s own quarterly numbers show why the central bank is keeping a close watch: the fourth quarter average had already reached Rp16,630 per U.S. dollar by the end of October 2025.
