BI Sees Rupiah at Rp16,430 Per Dollar in 2026 Forecast
Bank Indonesia projects the rupiah at Rp16,430 per US dollar in 2026, slightly stronger than the state budget assumption. The forecast comes as the central…
JAKARTA — The kurs usd hari ini debate is being shaped by Bank Indonesia’s latest 2026 projection, with the central bank seeing the rupiah at around Rp16,430 per US dollar next year. The estimate, announced by BI Governor Perry Warjiyo, sits slightly stronger than the 2026 State Budget assumption of Rp16,500 per dollar.
The forecast matters because it sets the tone for import costs, debt planning, and market expectations. It also comes as BI keeps leaning on market intervention to hold the currency steady after a volatile 2025.
Kurs usd hari ini and BI’s 2026 outlook
Perry told lawmakers on Wednesday, November 12, 2025, during a working meeting with House Commission XI that BI’s average exchange-rate projection is Rp16,430. He said, “The average exchange rate we project is Rp16,430, almost the same as the forecast of Rp16,440.”
The governor added that BI expects global uncertainty to remain high next year, especially because of possible foreign capital outflows. That risk, he said, is one reason the central bank is keeping a close watch on the rupiah.
“We continue to strive to maintain exchange rate stability with interventions in various instruments,” Perry said.
That line matters. The rupiah’s path in 2026 is not being left to the market alone. BI is signaling active management, and the budget assumption shows the government is planning for a similar range.
Why the currency stance matters now
BI said its intervention is taking place in several markets: the non-deliverable forward market, the domestic non-deliverable forward market, and the spot market. The central bank also linked that stabilization effort to a decline in foreign exchange reserves.
Indonesia’s foreign exchange reserves stood at US$155.7 billion at the end of 2024. By October 2025, they had fallen to US$148.7 billion, according to BI.
The movement in reserves shows the cost of defending the currency. Not all intervention reduces reserves directly, Perry said, but the pressure is still real enough to show up in the numbers the market watches most closely.
For businesses that buy imported raw materials, the forecast offers a rough planning anchor. For investors, it signals BI is preparing for more swings. And for households, a firmer or weaker rupiah can feed into prices of imported goods, travel, and fuel-linked costs. That is the practical bite of kurs usd hari ini: it reaches far beyond traders’ screens.
The rupiah’s path through 2025
BI’s own data shows the currency moved sharply through the year. The average exchange rate was Rp16,347 per US dollar in the first quarter, then Rp16,496 in the second quarter, before strengthening to Rp16,365 in the third quarter.
By the end of October 2025, the average exchange rate in the fourth quarter had been recorded at Rp16,630 per US dollar. That swing helps explain why BI is talking up stability now rather than waiting for the market to settle on its own.
Perry said BI continues to aim for an exchange rate around Rp16,000 per US dollar. The goal is clear, but the path there is not smooth. Global uncertainty, foreign capital flows, and domestic intervention strategy will keep shaping the currency’s direction into 2026.
The central bank’s next moves will be watched closely, especially after BI said its stabilization steps have already affected reserves. The market now has a number to test: Rp16,430, with Rp16,500 sitting as the budget assumption and Rp148.7 billion in reserves as the latest warning sign.
