Perry Warjiyo Sees Rupiah Rebounding in July or August 2026
Bank Indonesia Governor Perry Warjiyo said rupiah hari ini is expected to recover in July or August 2026 after a drop to 17,600 per US dollar. He pointed to…
JAKARTA — Bank Indonesia Governor Perry Warjiyo said rupiah hari ini is likely to regain strength in July or August 2026 after the currency fell to 17,600 per US dollar. He told lawmakers on Monday, May 18, 2026, that the current pressure looks temporary and follows a familiar pattern.
The central bank chief told Commission XI of the House of Representatives in Senayan that the rupiah’s weakness is linked to seasonal foreign-exchange demand and broader global shocks. That matters for Indonesia’s policy stance, because the exchange rate has already moved far from the state budget’s assumptions.
BI sees a familiar cycle
“From our experience, I don't want to boast, but I happen to have lived through crisis after crisis. I was there in 1997-1998, in 2008 during the global collapse, and the taper tantrum. The Covid-19 pandemic also had the same effect; the exchange rate pressures generally tend to ease and strengthen in July and August,” Perry said.
He said the rupiah is currently undervalued and below its fundamental worth. Perry pointed to the macroeconomic assumptions in the state budget, which use an average exchange rate of 16,500 and an upper threshold of 16,800 per US dollar.
That gap is the key pressure point. If the currency stays weak for longer, it can complicate planning for imports, debt settlement, and market expectations. For now, BI is leaning on history and on the idea that the current move is driven more by seasonal flows than by a structural break.
April to June bring the pressure
Perry said foreign-currency demand usually climbs in April, May, and June. He linked that to the Hajj pilgrimage, dividend payouts, and the settlement of foreign debts.
“In April, May, and June, the demand for foreign currency is typically high. We see the impact of the Hajj pilgrimage, dividend payouts, and the settlement of foreign debts,” he explained.
That is why BI expects the pressure to ease later in the year. July or August, in Perry’s view, should bring a better balance as those seasonal needs fade. The message to markets was blunt: the current weakness is not being treated as the new normal.
Global shocks are still in the mix
Perry also said the rupiah’s movement does not depend only on domestic factors. He cited the Middle East conflict in February 2026 as a major trigger for the currency’s decline, saying geopolitical risk pushed the rupiah lower.
The central bank’s confidence rests on a historical argument, but the near-term path still depends on how global risk appetite and local dollar demand move through the next few months. For households and companies, the practical issue is simple: a rupiah trading near 17,600 keeps pressure on foreign-currency costs until the seasonal peak passes.
He said the rupiah has shown an ability to bounce back after temporary dips, even after episodes such as the 1997-1998 crisis, the 2008 global collapse, the taper tantrum, and the Covid-19 shock.
“The exchange rate pressures generally tend to ease and strengthen in July and August,” Perry said.
