BTC USD in Focus as Japan Data Tests French Bond Spillover
Japan’s October trading data could show whether a French bond selloff spread through global markets. Bitcoin and ether fell as much as 20% in the 2024 yen…
TOKYO — btc usd is in focus as Japan prepares to publish fresh trading data on Thursday that may show whether a French bond selloff stayed contained or spread through global markets. The numbers, due at 8:50 a.m. Tokyo time on October 8, arrive after a Japanese fund dumped all of its French government bonds.
That matters because the last time the yen came under pressure, Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH) fell as much as 20%. The parallel has traders watching whether this week’s bond stress could spill into crypto again, not just European debt markets.
Japan’s data may show the pressure
Shinji Kunibe, who runs the global bond team at Sumitomo Mitsui DS Asset Management, said his funds sold all their French government bonds. The money went into German bonds and short-term Japanese debt. The size of the sale was not disclosed.
Kunibe’s concern centered on France’s finances. Paris owes about 119% of its yearly economic output, and its 10-year borrowing rate touched 4.96% last week, the highest since 2002.
Markets have not been short of signs. France sold about €12 billion of long-term bonds on October 1, and bids came in at roughly twice that amount, according to France’s debt office. Still, the question now is whether investors in Japan were part of the pressure that pushed the market around.
“When the bid from Japan disappears, the largest European sovereign market has to find new buyers at the same time its own government is arguing over a deficit plan that markets already distrust,” said Stern Drew, a commodities expert.
Drew said Japan may have broken the French bond market.
Why btc usd traders are watching
The key number from Tokyo will cover Japan’s biggest banks, insurers and funds. The Ministry of Finance will release weekly trading data, but it will not name France directly. It records every foreign bond as one group.
That creates a blind spot. The report ending September 26 already showed selling. Japanese investors dumped a net ¥684.5 billion ($4.3 billion) of foreign bonds that week, and ¥1.9 trillion ($12 billion) the week before, according to ministry data.
For investors tracking btc usd, the link is not obvious at first glance. Yet the mechanism is familiar: for years, investors borrowed cheap yen to buy higher-paying assets abroad. When the yen jumps, those loans become more expensive and holders are forced to sell.
That is the yen carry trade. And when it unwinds fast, the selling can spread well beyond bonds.
The Bank for International Settlements has long tracked how such currency moves can tighten financial conditions across markets. In the 2024 yen shock, Bitcoin and Ethereum took a hit as the carry trade came under pressure. That makes Thursday’s Japan figures more than a routine data release.
If the numbers show heavy foreign bond sales again, traders will have another sign that the strain did not stop at Paris. They will also be looking for whether the pressure hits btc usd as sharply as it did during the last yen shock, when Bitcoin and ether fell as much as 20%.
Source: finance.yahoo.com
