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Iran-US Ceasefire on Edge as Talks Resume in Doha

Gencatan senjata Iran-AS dibahas dalam negosiasi Doha
The United States and Iran agreed to halt retaliatory attacks and continue technical talks in Doha, Qatar, on Tuesday. The move came after military escalation around the Strait of Hormuz raised fears the fragile ceasefire could unravel and disrupt global shipping again.

DOHA — The Iran-US ceasefire was tested again after the United States and Iran agreed to halt retaliatory attacks and continue technical talks in Doha, Qatar, on Tuesday. The understanding came after several days of military escalation around the Strait of Hormuz threatened to collapse the fragile pause in fighting.

The stakes are high. The Strait of Hormuz is a critical artery for global oil shipments, and any disruption there quickly hits energy markets, commercial shipping, and international logistics costs. That is why news of a stop to the fighting and the opening of a new negotiation channel carries far more weight than a routine diplomatic pause.

Attacks stop, ships are told to keep moving

Axios, citing multiple media outlets, reported that both sides agreed to stop all offensive activity and resume technical discussions in Doha. One senior US official said, “We decided to stop all the kinetic activity,” referring to military strikes and other offensive moves.

A second US official said both sides would hold back “for now” and that ships could move freely while technical talks continue. That detail matters. It shows the talks have shifted from a broad ceasefire question to the immediate issue of keeping vessels safe in Gulf waters.

But the situation remains unsettled. In earlier rounds of clashes, Washington struck Iranian military targets after accusing Tehran of violating the ceasefire by targeting commercial ships. Iran responded with ballistic missiles and drones aimed at US military bases in Bahrain and Kuwait. Both sides also issued sharp warnings against further escalation.

The Strait of Hormuz is the sensitive point

The root of the dispute lies in different readings of a memorandum of understanding signed earlier this month to end the conflict. One clause, Article 5, covers navigation in the Strait of Hormuz. Iran says it will do its best to ensure safe passage for commercial ships, while the US agreed to lift the blockade on Iranian ports.

The problem is that the two sides do not read the agreement the same way. In talks in Switzerland last week, the US delegation led by Vice President JD Vance also agreed to set up a direct communication line, or hotline, between the US military and Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, or IRGC, to coordinate ship movement. But US officials said the channel has not started because Iran insists ships must coordinate with Tehran before entering the strait.

That is where the danger lies. The Strait of Hormuz is not an ordinary waterway. A large share of oil exports from the Gulf passes through that narrow stretch of water. Once a strike happens, markets immediately price in new risk. Oil moves. Shipping insurance rises. Commercial fleets adjust course and become more cautious.

Doha replaces Switzerland, and the agenda changes

The technical meeting was originally scheduled to take place in Switzerland and was first focused on Iran’s nuclear program. But the latest escalation pushed the venue to Doha and narrowed the agenda to one far more urgent issue: settling the dispute over the Strait of Hormuz.

The shift shows the new priority for both sides. This is no longer about a wide-ranging, long-form negotiation. It is about preventing one small incident from triggering a much bigger conflict. Qatar, which has often hosted regional dialogue, was chosen again because it is seen as a neutral place to keep communication alive.

Even so, a full agreement is still far off. Iran canceled the technical meeting on Sunday, citing the latest US strikes and claiming Washington had not met the terms of the memorandum. Mehdi Fazaeili, a member of the Office for the Preservation and Publication of the Works of Iran’s Supreme Leader, also raised access to frozen funds as one of the unmet conditions.

“For example, one of the reasons was to check whether we have access to the frozen funds. If there is no access, then that condition has not been met,” Fazaeili said on Iranian state television.

That leaves the Iran-US ceasefire looking more like a short pause than a durable peace. The attacks have stopped, but distrust remains deep. And as long as the Strait of Hormuz is not fully secure, even a small spark could pull both countries into another round of tension.

Doha is now the test stage. If the technical talks move forward, commercial ships may finally get some breathing room. If they fail, global energy traffic will again run under a cloud of anxiety.

“Vessels can move freely,” one US official said, while waiting for the outcome of Tuesday’s negotiations.

(PE)

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