Middle East Oil Exports Top Prewar Levels Despite Attacks
Oil flows from the Persian Gulf have exceeded their prewar average as pipelines and ship-to-ship transfers keep crude moving around the Strait of Hormuz. But…
Oil flows from the Persian Gulf have recovered beyond their prewar average, but Iranian forces’ claim that they hit seven vessels crossing the Strait of Hormuz shows the danger to shipping remains. The surge in exports has come as pipelines and alternative shipping arrangements help move crude around the disruption.
The flows through Hormuz and alternative regional routes averaged more than 24 million barrels daily in the week ended October 18, according to The Wall Street Journal, citing ship-tracking firm Kpler. That was above the prewar average of 23.3 million barrels.
Oil prices rose on Thursday after Iranian forces said they struck the vessels. If confirmed officially, the figure would be the largest for a single day since the war began in late February, according to the source report.
Brent crude climbed 2.91% to $111.99 per barrel at 8:10 a.m. ET, while West Texas Intermediate gained 2.46% to $99.54 at the same time.
Middle East oil exports use alternative routes
The recovery does not mean the Strait of Hormuz has returned to normal traffic. Preliminary Kpler figures put flows through the strait, including offshore transfers in the Gulf of Oman, at approximately 14 million barrels daily, equivalent to 82% of prewar volumes.
Saudi and Emirati pipelines have helped exporters redirect crude. In September, approximately 40% of non-Iranian crude leaving the Gulf bypassed Hormuz, compared with 17% before the war, according to the source report.
Some tankers also operate as shuttles. They collect oil inside the Gulf, cross Hormuz and transfer cargo to other vessels near Oman, which then carry it to distant markets. American air cover provides some protection along the Omani coast, while tankers frequently switch off their tracking signals during crossings.
Those workarounds keep oil moving, but they add complexity to transport through a waterway exposed to attacks. The export rebound can ease the immediate risk of a sharp drop in crude supply; it does not remove the threat to ships and crews, nor guarantee that the routes will remain available.
Threats continue as oil prices climb
Iran has signalled a tougher response as tensions rise. “If a country attacks us, we will both respond and go on the offensive,” Revolutionary Guards spokesman Hossein Mohebbi said on Wednesday.
Mohebbi said the previous doctrine had been defensive and focused on responding to attacks, but would now be asymmetric, according to the source report.
The latest claims come against a backdrop of stalled diplomacy. The report said there are no prospects of renewed talks. It also cited a Financial Times report that Israel’s military was ready to strike Iranian nuclear infrastructure and energy targets on the weekend of October 10, but US President Donald Trump did not approve the operation. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu later called that report “incorrect.”
The immediate consequence for energy markets is a mismatch: regional crude exports have exceeded their prewar average, yet traders are still weighing attacks and uncertainty over the conflict. The latest Kpler figures put traffic through Hormuz at approximately 14 million barrels daily, or 82% of prewar volumes.
Source: yahoo.com
