CREA Estimates 3,560 Deaths From Wildfire Smoke in Indonesia
Smoke from Indonesia’s forest and land fires was linked to an estimated 3,560 deaths in September, about two-thirds of the country’s air pollution deaths that…
JAKARTA — The Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air (CREA) estimated that wildfire smoke killed 3,560 people in Indonesia in September 2026, as air pollution deaths climbed to 5,310. The estimate puts fire-related deaths at about two-thirds of the total and comes as millions of people faced unhealthy to hazardous air.
CREA said the September estimate was twice the figure for August. The figures estimate deaths linked to short-term exposure to fine particle pollution, or PM2.5; they are not a count of recorded deaths.
How many deaths were linked to wildfire smoke?
CREA attributed 3,560 estimated deaths in September to smoke from forest and land fires, while another 1,750 were linked to urban and industrial pollution. The think tank put total air pollution deaths in a range of 4,610 to 6,080.
The estimated total of 5,310 represented a 42 per cent rise from 3,740 in August, according to CREA. The country has about 278 million people.
The toll was concentrated in regions most affected by fires. Smoke accounted for between 94 and 99 per cent of air pollution deaths in four Kalimantan provinces and more than 80 per cent in several areas on Sumatra, CREA found.
Central Kalimantan recorded the highest estimated death rate: 14.1 deaths per 100,000 people in September, more than double the August rate. On Java, by contrast, non-fire sources such as industry, vehicle exhaust and waste burning were linked to 1,530 deaths, or between 73 and 80 per cent of air pollution deaths on the island.
Millions faced hazardous air
CREA estimated that 57.8 million people breathed air classed as unhealthy to hazardous in September, 40 per cent more than the August peak of 41.3 million. In Kalimantan, the number exposed to hazardous-level air on the worst days nearly tripled, rising from 2.8 million to 6.4 million.
The pollution was severe in the hardest-hit cities. Average daily PM2.5 reached 372 micrograms per cubic metre of air in Palangka Raya, Central Kalimantan, and 327 in Pontianak, West Kalimantan. Indonesia classifies readings above 300 as hazardous; the city averages were 22 to 25 times the World Health Organization’s 24-hour limit of 15.
That exposure is also showing up in respiratory illness figures. Indonesia’s health ministry recorded 333,470 acute respiratory infections across seven provinces by 21 October, up from 283,270 on 13 October. The total was more than six times the 50,891 cases recorded in July and August; children under five accounted for 75,172 cases, nearly a quarter.
The fires have also exceeded past records in some areas. CREA said satellite readings of fire activity in Kalimantan, Sulawesi and Papua passed 2015 records in September, the year of Indonesia’s worst haze crisis. The national disaster agency recorded 1,024 hectares of land burning in a single 24-hour period on 19 October.
How has the government responded?
The government defended its response on Wednesday, saying it had deployed more than 72,000 people for cloud seeding and firefighting, activated more than 2,100 doctors and health workers in hard-hit areas, and distributed 5.3 million masks.
CREA said the national disaster agency’s budget had been cut by 75 per cent for 2026, from 2 trillion rupiah to 491 billion rupiah, leaving its operations severely underfunded, in the think tank’s assessment.
President Prabowo Subianto has not declared the fires a national emergency, despite calls from parliament, environmental groups and student protesters. Officials said regional capacity had not “completely collapsed” and that task forces were working on the ground.
CREA argued that declaring a national emergency could make Indonesia liable for transboundary haze and affect confidence in palm oil and pulp and paper exports, while shifting costs to the central treasury. It said provinces are currently managing the response with limited budgets.
