Victoria Election: Half of Victorians Open to One Nation Coalition
A Resolve Political Monitor survey of 1000 Victorians puts Labor's primary vote at 22 per cent, third in a three-way race weeks before the state election. Premier Ben Carroll is refusing a head-to-head debate with Coalition leader Jess Wilson.
Victoria's Labor government has fallen to 22 per cent primary support, its lowest level in almost two years, according to the latest Resolve Political Monitor survey. The poll, which found half of Victorians open to a One Nation coalition, leaves Labor third statewide just weeks before the state election.
The survey questioned 1000 respondents between November 2 and November 7. That period included the Reserve Bank's Cup Day decision to raise the cash rate for a fifth time this year.
Voters are moving from Premier Ben Carroll's government to Jess Wilson and the Coalition. Support for One Nation is unchanged.
If voters behaved the same way on November 28, the Coalition would likely win a clear majority. Labor, in power for all but four years this century, would be left a parliamentary rump.
The result cuts against Labor's central campaign pitch: that the Liberal and National parties can only govern with the help of Pauline Hanson's populist movement.
Carroll's slide
Labor's 22 per cent matches the low recorded under former premier Jacinta Allan in January 2025. When Carroll challenged Allan for the leadership in July and became Victoria's third premier in three years, Labor stood at 27 per cent.
Resolve founder Jim Reed said the numbers were ominous. "Any hope Labor had that the change to Carroll would turn their fortunes around has been dashed," he said.
"He may not be hated in the same way as Allan, but his personal ratings and Labor's vote have only gone one way since he became leader – down," Reed added.
Carroll's likeability rating fell from minus 11 in October to minus 16. Wilson gained a point over the month to reach 24.
Only one in five voters now expects Labor to keep majority government. Two months ago, one in four did.
Coalition gains, with limits
Coalition primary support rose 2 percentage points between October and November to 30 per cent. That is still well below the 39 per cent recorded in December, before One Nation's rise.
Reed said Wilson and the Coalition were in the box seat to win in their own right. "It's a bandwagon effect, where the majority wanting change are increasingly seeing the opposition as the preferred agent of change," he said.
Respondents who want a change of government were blunt. "The lies and corruption over the last six years means I can't bring myself to vote for them again," one told Resolve.
Despite the headline numbers, the result is not settled in every seat. Experts expect close three-, four- and even five-cornered contests in a number of electorates.
Debate standoff
The slump adds pressure on Carroll to take any chance to challenge Wilson, including a free-to-air televised leaders' debate proposed by Nine for Thursday night. Carroll agreed to the original offer of a three-way debate with Wilson and One Nation's Victorian leader, Warren Pickering.
On Monday he was refusing to debate Wilson head-to-head. Asked whether Victorians deserved a contest of ideas between the two leaders, Carroll said: "It was put before me as a three-way leader's debate. You talk about opinion polls, look where the polls have One Nation."
Wilson had initially refused to share a stage with Pickering, saying only she or Carroll would lead Victoria's next government.
