Victoria Labor Trails Coalition and One Nation in New Poll Before Election
Victoria is the Australian state holding an election on November 28. A new poll puts Labor in third place, behind the Coalition and One Nation, with the party’s primary vote at 18%. Premier Ben Carroll defended his government’s record while Labor MPs raised concerns about the campaign.
Victoria is the Australian state holding an election on November 28, with a new poll putting the governing Labor Party behind the Coalition and One Nation. The result has raised concern among Labor lawmakers as the campaign enters its final stretch.
The DemosAU/PremierNational poll puts Labor’s primary vote at 18%, down seven points. The Coalition leads with 33%, while One Nation is on 21% and the Greens on 17%, up three points since September.
The poll gives the Coalition a 56-44 lead over Labor on a two-party-preferred basis, compared with 52-48 in September. It surveyed 1,562 respondents, with an effective sample of 818 and a margin of error of 3.4%.
George Hasanakos, DemosAU’s head of research, said a result like that on election night would reshape contests across the state. He said many races could become contests between the Liberals or Nationals and One Nation, producing a “clear Coalition majority.”
“If that happens, One Nation has to poll really, really well to have a chance of winning, because Labor and Greens preferences will flow to the Liberals,” Hasanakos said.
Ben Carroll, Victoria’s premier, did not say whether he was worried about the poll when asked at a press conference in South Melbourne. He said his focus was on working people and making sure voters knew his government would “fight for you.”
Carroll also warned that a Liberal-One Nation government would “shrink the economy, cause a recession and make life difficult for every single Victorian.”
Some Labor MPs remain skeptical of the poll’s 18% figure. Party campaign officials regard it as an outlier and point to other public polls that put Labor’s primary vote in the 20s, while lawmakers have questioned the campaign’s strategy.
Labor’s recent focus on crime has drawn particular criticism from within the party. Carroll announced a $204m plan on Sunday to let judges sentence low- and mid-level youth offenders to a new rehabilitation detention program. On Monday, he announced $70m to recruit 200 more police reservists and reopen, build or upgrade stations.
One Labor MP said the caucus was “really angry and deflated.” Another described the crime focus as a “diabolically stupid strategy,” arguing the government had years to address public concern over rising crime rates.
Opposition leader Jess Wilson said on Monday that her party was focused on “getting tough on crime,” including through a proposed sentencing measure called Aidan’s Law.
