Labour faces loss of up to 18 London MPs as Reform, Conservatives and Greens surge in poll
Could lose as many as 18 MPs in London at the next general election, according to a new poll that puts the party 11. Labour — full details here.
Labour could lose as many as 18 MPs in London at the next general election, according to a new poll that puts the party 11 points down on its 2024 parliamentary election performance in the capital. The Savanta survey for The Mile End Institute at Queen Mary University of London suggests the race in London is tightening fast, with Reform UK, the Conservatives and the Greens all positioning themselves to take seats from Labour.
The poll, carried out earlier this month, gives Labour 32% of the vote in London for Parliament. Reform UK and the Conservatives are tied on 18%, the Green Party is on 16%, the Liberal Democrats on 10%, and independents and others on 6%. For Labour, the numbers point to a hard slog to hold the city that helped anchor its national victory in July 2024.
Pressure on Labour in the capital
The findings suggest that the new prime minister’s wave of optimism and early policy moves have not yet shifted the picture in London. Andy Burnham is facing what the poll describes as a battle to stop Labour’s losses, even as the party tries to consolidate its grip on the capital.
Westminster watchers will read the result as another sign of Britain’s fractured party system. London, long treated as a Labour stronghold, now looks more open to contest than at any point in recent years.
Tories eye gains across west and north London
The Conservatives under Kemi Badenoch could pick up eight parliamentary seats from Labour across west, north and central London, the poll suggests. That would mark a sharp reversal from 2024, when the party suffered a crushing defeat in the capital and ended up with no MPs in Inner London.
For the Tories, even a partial recovery in London would matter far beyond the city. It would signal that the party can still compete in urban seats at a time when it is trying to rebuild after a bruising election.
Reform and the Greens add to Labour’s squeeze
Nigel Farage’s Reform UK is also in the mix, having already secured control of its first council in London. The party’s rise, together with the Greens’ stronger showing, adds pressure on Labour from both right and left in seats where small swings could decide the winner.
The picture is becoming more fragmented. In Worcestershire, the Conservatives have already teamed up with the Greens, Liberal Democrats and independents to remove a Reform UK administration from county hall, a reminder of how fluid local alliances have become as parties search for routes to power.
That volatility is now feeding into national strategy. Reform has warned that under a future government it would prioritise detention centres in Green-held areas, while Green figures have hit back by linking the pledge to older, racially charged Tory campaigning. London voters, meanwhile, are facing a campaign that could be defined by tactical voting and split opposition ranks.
What happens next will hinge on whether Labour can arrest the slide before the general election campaign hardens. For now, the capital looks set to be one of the main battlegrounds of the next contest.
