Gold Rises on US-Iran Peace Hopes, Holds Above $4,020 Monday
Gold climbed above $4,020 in early European trading on Monday as hopes for US-Iran diplomacy and a softer dollar offset a strong US jobs report. Traders now see about 79.6% odds of a Federal Reserve rate rise in December.
Gold (XAU/USD) rose above $4,020 in early European trading on Monday, November 9, 2026, as hopes of US-Iran diplomacy and a weaker US dollar lifted the metal.
Gold rises on US-Iran peace prospects, but gains may be limited. A strong US jobs report has raised bets that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates higher for longer.
Diplomacy in focus
US President Donald Trump will meet Qatar's Prime Minister at the White House at 17:00 GMT on Monday. The talks are expected to cover a new ceasefire and a restart of nuclear negotiations as the conflict with Iran drags on.
Politics at home is also feeding the market. Democrats, who won majorities in both the House and Senate, are strongly opposing Trump's proposed $1.5 trillion defense budget.
A source familiar with the discussions said Democrats are likely to approve only a figure near $1 trillion. They are wary of being seen to fund the war against Iran.
Jobs data caps the upside
The US economy added 165,000 jobs in October, up from 60,000 in September, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported on Friday. Economists had expected 65,000. The unemployment rate fell to 4.1% from 4.2%.
Higher interest rates make gold less attractive because the metal pays no interest. Traders now see about 79.6% odds that the Fed will raise rates in December, up from 72.8% before the report, according to the CME FedWatch tool.
"Gold gapped lower on a stellar employment report (that was) strong across the board, but is trying to claw back higher," said independent metals trader Tai Wong. "This is a litmus test for this week's rally."
Stocks and safe-haven demand
Analysts at OCBC said gold pared earlier gains after touching a two-week high above $4,140 overnight. A rebound in oil prices and some stability in the dollar limited the advance, even as softer US Treasury yields helped.
The bank also flagged risks from the selloff in AI and semiconductor stocks. "Should equity weakness trigger broader deleveraging, gold may not be spared from liquidity-driven selling as investors raise cash," OCBC said.
Still, OCBC called gold's resilience during the equity selloff "encouraging." It said that after the recent correction and a reduction in speculative positioning, gold may be gradually regaining some of its safe-haven appeal.
On the charts, spot gold remains below its 100-day simple moving average, a widely watched trend gauge. OCBC expects consolidation after the recent sharp rebound and named the next US consumer price index report as another key test, with oil prices an important driver of inflation and rate expectations.
