Gold Holds Below $3,900 as Fed Rate-Hike Bets Cap Rebound
Gold edged higher on Friday but stayed below $3,900 an ounce, near its lowest since September 2025, as traders fully priced a December Fed rate hike and the dollar held near a 2025 high. US producer prices are due next, with gold on track for a weekly loss.
Gold sticks to modest gains below $3,900 an ounce on Friday, November 13, 2026, as bets on a Federal Reserve interest-rate hike cap any bounce. The metal is trading near its lowest level since September 2025, which it touched the previous day.
The gains came during the first half of the European session. Gold is still on track for a weekly loss.
Rate-hike bets lift the dollar
The US dollar paused after a three-day rally that took it to its highest since April 2025. That gave gold slight support. But firmer expectations of a Fed rate rise and Middle East tensions continue to back the dollar, which limits gold's upside.
Hotter-than-expected US consumer inflation for October set the tone. Several Fed officials then struck a hawkish note, meaning they signaled a preference for tighter policy, and traders priced in more tightening.
The CME Group's FedWatch Tool shows a 25-basis-point hike in December is fully priced in. Traders see about a 13% chance of a larger 50-basis-point increase. A basis point is one-hundredth of a percentage point.
Crude oil prices also rose overnight, and US Treasuries sold off further. The yield on the benchmark 10-year government bond climbed beyond 5%. Higher yields make non-interest-paying gold less attractive and favor the dollar.
Geopolitical risk
US President Donald Trump on Thursday issued a fresh warning to Iran. He said those responsible for any attack on American officials would no longer exist, and that he would not hesitate to order more military action if needed.
He also wrote in a Truth Social post that the US does not need a deal with Iran. Attacks on Saudi Arabia's energy infrastructure and on commercial ships in the Strait of Hormuz keep the geopolitical risk premium in play, which supports the dollar.
Chart levels and what comes next
Gold's near-term bias is bearish after repeated failures near resistance at $4,150 and a break below the 100-period exponential moving average on the four-hour chart. The Relative Strength Index, a gauge of momentum, sits at 35.43, near the oversold band. The MACD, another momentum measure, is around -15.22.
Initial resistance lies near $3,960, ahead of $4,000 and the 100-period average at $4,037.06. On the downside, the $3,865-$3,855 region, the year-to-date low, could act as interim support. A break below it would extend a downtrend that began at the August swing high.
The US Producer Price Index, which tracks the prices producers receive, is the main data release on Friday's calendar. Speeches from influential Federal Open Market Committee members will also shape expectations for the Fed's path.
