IHSG Rises as Forex Reserve Data Looms

JAKARTA — IHSG strengthened by 40.29 points, or 0.69 percent, to 5,916.07 at the close of trading on the Indonesia Stock Exchange on Monday afternoon, July 6. The LQ45 index also rose 2.70 points, or 0.46 percent, to 584.48.

The gain came as market participants waited for the Fed minutes and domestic foreign exchange reserve data, which are usually important clues for the direction of money and stock markets. The market moved calmly. But cautiously.

Global sentiment and domestic data kept the market in check

Associate Director of Research and Investment at Pilarmas Investindo Sekuritas, Maximilianus Nico Demus, or Nico, said overseas sentiment and domestic factors were both weighing on trading that day. According to him, investors had no strong reason to enter aggressively before two major data releases.

“External and internal sentiment weighed on IHSG movements,” Nico said in his analysis in Jakarta on Monday.

From abroad, Asian exchanges moved mixed. Market participants were waiting for the minutes of the United States central bank, the Fed, to look for further signals on the direction of interest rates. On the other hand, the market was also awaiting Chinese economic data scheduled for release this week.

Nico explained that the Fed minutes are important because they contain the full details of monetary policy decisions and the economic projections discussed in the Federal Open Market Committee meeting. The document is often used by investors as a clue as to whether the US central bank will turn more accommodative or maintain tight policy.

Why foreign exchange reserve data matters

At home, the market’s attention was focused on foreign exchange reserve data. This figure is one of the indicators of Indonesia’s ability to maintain rupiah stability, pay external obligations, and dampen volatility when foreign capital flows change quickly.

For retail investors, the impact is not always immediately felt on a stock app screen. However, stronger foreign exchange reserve data usually gives the market a sense of security. The rupiah tends to be calmer, bond yields can move more steadily, and sentiment toward banking and consumer stocks can also improve.

That is why the market is not rushing in. Investors are weighing the risks first, then entering. If foreign exchange reserve data disappoints, pressure on the rupiah could emerge and IHSG may lose momentum. If the result is solid, the index has room to continue its gains.

US labor data also shifts rate expectations

The market also watched newly released US labor data. Non-farm payrolls rose only 57,000 in June 2026, far below the forecast of 110,000, and marked the smallest increase in four months.

The figure prompted market participants to reduce speculation about an interest-rate hike in September 2025. Meanwhile, the unemployment rate fell to 4.2 percent, but the decline came because the labor force participation rate dropped to its lowest level since 2021.

The series of data led global markets to read the possibility that the Fed may be more cautious. For the Indonesian stock market, every dovish signal from the US central bank usually gives breathing room for capital flows into risk assets. But that room is not automatically wide. Investors are still waiting for additional evidence.

Because of that, Monday’s IHSG gain is better understood as a restrained advance, not a full rally. The index rose, but market participants were still holding cash while waiting for certainty from two directions at once: Washington and Jakarta.

“The market is currently tending to be cautious while waiting for the minutes of the Fed policy meeting, for further clues on the interest-rate outlook,” Nico said.

With the close at 5,916.07, IHSG remains in an area sensitive to external sentiment. One piece of news from the Fed or one foreign exchange reserve figure could quickly change the direction of trading. Up today. Tomorrow? The market is still waiting.