SpaceX’s Anthropic Deal Catch: Musk Says Clause Cuts Both Ways
Elon Musk responded to a claim that SpaceX could use a 90-day termination clause to reprice its $1.25 billion-a-month compute contract with Anthropic. He said the clause works both ways, and that falling compute prices would hurt SpaceX's revenue.
Elon Musk said on Sunday that SpaceX’s compute contract with Anthropic carries risk for both sides, answering a claim that SpaceX could use a 90-day exit clause to raise prices. Critics see that clause as the SpaceX’s Anthropic deal catch.
Musk posted his reply on X, responding to a clip of venture capitalist Chamath Palihapitiya shared by AI commentator Rohan Paul.
The 90-day clause
Palihapitiya said on a podcast released Sunday that either side can walk away on 90 days’ notice. If data center supply tightens, he argued, SpaceX could exercise that option and bring the contract back at two to three times the current price. Anthropic, he said, would have little choice but to accept.
He called it “the kingmaking move.”
The clause is not new. SpaceX disclosed in its IPO filings in May that Anthropic would pay $1.25 billion per month for dedicated capacity at its Colossus clusters through May 2029, nearly $45 billion in total. SpaceX’s later compute deals with Google and Reflection AI carry similar exit terms.
Why politics is back in the frame
What has changed is the political backdrop. Palihapitiya’s thesis rests on incoming Democratic governors pulling tax incentives for data centers and slowing new construction.
In Texas, Gov.-elect Gina Hinojosa campaigned on a moratorium on new data center approvals. Deutsche Bank analysts warned last week that SpaceX’s Texas compute capacity could face delays. SpaceX and Tesla shares both fell after the midterm results.
A slowdown would favor companies that already own capacity. SpaceX acquired xAI in February and has been renting data centers to outside AI labs before the space is needed for Grok.
Musk’s numbers
At the Baron Investment Conference on Friday, Musk said SpaceX was “getting 50 billion a year for 35 billion dollar investments.” He said it can bring a data center online in eight or nine months, compared with two and a half years for competitors.
He also said SpaceX is tracking toward an annualized revenue rate above $100 billion in December. His “best guess” is $500 billion by December 2027.
Anthropic’s leverage
The exit option also gives Anthropic room to maneuver. The AI lab has signed large compute agreements with Amazon, Google and Microsoft. If that capacity comes online faster than new construction slows, Anthropic could renegotiate or leave.
Musk has called Anthropic “obviously currently the leader in AI.” It remains one of SpaceX’s largest compute customers.
SpaceX shares rose more than 2 percent in overnight trading late Sunday, after closing Friday at $134.27.
Musk framed the clause as a shared gamble. “It works both ways, of course. If compute becomes plentiful and cheap, SpaceX revenue will drop. No crying in the casino for either party,” he wrote.
