Natural Gas Oil Forecast: Brent Near $92 as Hormuz Attacks Persist
Oil rose from a two-month low on Wednesday as attacks on Strait of Hormuz shipping blunted truce hopes, while US natural gas held near a four-week high. The EIA also raised its Brent price forecasts for 2026 and 2027.
Oil prices rose on Wednesday from the previous session's two-month low, as attacks on shipping in the Strait of Hormuz blunted hopes for a truce in the Iran war, while US natural gas stayed near a four-week high in this natural gas oil forecast update.
January Brent, the international benchmark, traded near $92.43 a barrel. West Texas Intermediate (WTI), the US benchmark, traded near $86.52. December natural gas stood near $3.29.
Shipping attacks keep oil supported
Thirty-seven ships were attacked in October, the highest monthly total since the war began, according to data from the Washington Institute for Near East Policy. Recent data showed little sign of fewer attacks in November.
Iran's Revolutionary Guards Navy said two tankers caught fire after hitting naval mines on what it called the "unauthorized route" in the strait.
Even a deal would not quickly restore normal traffic. LSEG Oil Research said in a November 10 note that more flows through the waterway "would still depend on mine clearance, insurance costs and whether or not shipowners would even be willing to take the risk."
Diplomacy sent mixed signals. President Donald Trump said on Monday the war could end "fairly soon" and called new strikes "quite unlikely." An Iranian security official, however, said no talks were taking place between the two sides.
EIA lifts its Brent outlook
The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) raised its Brent forecasts in its November Short-Term Energy Outlook. It now sees an average of $97 a barrel in 2026 and $86 in 2027, up from $96 and $84 a month earlier.
The agency pointed to falling global inventories, continued attacks on oil tankers and fewer available tankers, which have pushed tanker rates sharply higher. It expects Brent to average around $100 a barrel in November and December.
US supply data looked softer. Crude stocks rose by 9 million barrels in the week ended November 6, according to American Petroleum Institute figures.
Russian oil refining capacity has fallen by about 30% since late October after renewed Ukrainian drone attacks, industry sources said.
Natural gas at a four-week high
US natural gas climbed to around $3.24 per million British thermal units (MMBtu) on Tuesday, its highest level in four weeks. Forecasts turned cooler across parts of the central and eastern US through November 20.
Liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports ran at a record 19.3 billion cubic feet per day so far in November. Output in the Lower 48 states averaged 112.1 billion cubic feet per day this month, down from 113.4 billion in October.
The EIA's next weekly storage report is due Friday, November 13, a day later than usual because of the Veterans Day holiday. Stocks stood 1.4% above the five-year average in the week ended October 30.
