IEA Says Global Oil Supply Back in Surplus for First Time Since Iran War
The International Energy Agency said oil supply beat demand by almost 2m barrels a day in October as Gulf exports recovered. Brent crude traded near $95 a barrel on Friday, below its April peak of $126, though attacks on tankers continue.
The International Energy Agency (IEA) said on November 13, 2026, that global oil supply returns to surplus for the first time since the start of the US-Israeli war against Iran. Supply outstripped demand by almost 2m barrels a day in October, the Paris-based agency said.
It said Gulf exports "recovered much faster than global oil demand". The market is "showing tentative signs of rebalancing", the IEA added.
Prices still well above prewar levels
The war blocked shipments through the strait of Hormuz, the route for about a fifth of the world's oil and gas supply. Brent crude, the international benchmark, traded at about $72 a barrel in February before the conflict began. It hit $126 by the end of April.
Prices fell this week to $89.66, their lowest since late August, after US President Donald Trump told reporters the war with Iran was "effectively over". Brent was trading at about $95 on Friday.
What the IEA expects
The agency forecast global supply averaging 105m barrels a day in the final three months of the year. That is 1.7m higher than expected demand. It had previously predicted a deficit for the fourth quarter.
Global demand is expected to fall by 2.68m barrels a day this year to 103.2m. Consumption should rebound next year but stay below 2025 levels. The IEA blamed "high prices, electrification and fuel efficiency" for weak vehicle fuel demand.
The recovery eases pressure on emergency stockpiles, which the conflict drained. IEA members will speed up the release of remaining stocks pledged earlier this year, adding a further 71m barrels by the end of February.
Risks remain
Tanker-tracking data compiled showed combined October exports from Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Iraq and Kuwait rose 10% to 15.53 million barrels a day. That is roughly in line with levels at the start of the year.
Saudi Arabia said its October crude output rose by 970,000 barrels a day to 9.2 million.
Security concerns persist. Consultancy Verisk Maplecroft counted 36 confirmed attacks on commercial ships in the Persian Gulf, the Strait of Hormuz and the Gulf of Oman in October, the highest monthly total since the war began.
US Central Command said it shot down two Iranian attack drones aimed at a US base in Bahrain. Trump has also said the US does not need a deal with Iran. US crude futures for December delivery were up 0.39% on Friday, with gains held back by a stronger dollar.
