Technology · Gaming

GTA 6 Lands in Just 1 Week, Avengers: Doomsday Next in Line

Rockstar Games launches Grand Theft Auto 6 on November 19, and forecasts of $3.2 billion in first-year revenue have industry figures warning that Avengers: Doomsday and Dune: Part Three, both due December 18, will compete with it for audiences' time and money.

By Alistair Sterling

November 14, 20262 min read

GTA 6 Lands in Just 1 Week, Avengers: Doomsday Next in Line — GTA 6 Lands in Just 1 Week, Avengers

Rockstar Games will release Grand Theft Auto 6 on Thursday, November 19, and industry forecasts suggest it could draw spending and attention away from Avengers: Doomsday and Dune: Part Three, both due in theaters on December 18. The game arrives just 1 week before the holiday movie season gets going, 13 years after its predecessor.

The projected numbers are large. A first-year forecast puts GTA 6 at 45 million copies sold and $3.2 billion in revenue. That would top the roughly $2.8 billion worldwide box office of Marvel Studios' Avengers: Endgame.

What the forecasts say

Market research firm Newzoo projects GTA 6 will earn between $3.25 billion and $5.2 billion in its first week alone. These are estimates, not confirmed sales.

Data analytics company Sensor Tower estimates the game has already generated $1 billion in pre-release sales. It bases that on about 10.31 million copies on PlayStation and Xbox consoles.

A rival for attention, not just tickets

Geoff Keighley, creator of The Game Awards, named both December films as potential competitors. "I think GTA 6 will be the biggest entertainment launch in history," he said. He argued the game will challenge their commercial results and the time audiences give to other entertainment.

The worry is less about opening weekends than about attention. Audiences already split their time among theaters, streaming services and games, and industry experts warn one release could dominate holiday spending.

The game's scale adds to the concern. Set in the fictional state of Leonida, it follows Jason and Lucia through a criminal conspiracy. The main story takes about 80 hours to finish, far longer than a film.

By December 18, the argument goes, Rockstar may already hold much of players' free time. Doomsday and Dune 3 are big releases in their own right. But GTA 6 is an experience people can return to at home through the holidays.

Other releases in the window

The pressure is not limited to December. The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping opens in theaters on November 20, one day after GTA 6. TV series including The Lord of the Rings: The Rings of Power and Percy Jackson and the Olympians are also competing for viewers in the same period.

GTA 6 goes on sale November 19.