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Columnist Picks Amazon, Micron and IBM as Long-Term Holds Through 2030

A November 15, 2026 commentary picks Amazon, Micron and IBM as long-term holds through 2030. Amazon's case rests on a $578 billion cloud backlog and 39% AWS growth, set against $220 billion in planned spending and negative free cash flow.

By matthew jonathan

November 15, 20262 min read

Columnist Picks Amazon, Micron and IBM as Long-Term Holds Through 2030

Amazon stock is one of three long-term holds a columnist named on November 15, 2026, citing a $578 billion backlog at Amazon Web Services (AWS), the company's cloud arm. The other picks are Micron Technology and International Business Machines (IBM). The piece is commentary, not a recommendation from JournalArta.

The columnist says holding any stock through 2030 means more than four years of risk. That is why he prefers a mix of three very different companies over one big bet.

Micron trades at under 5 times the earnings analysts expect for this fiscal year. Amazon trades at around 25 times earnings, using analysts' 2027 forecasts. IBM's dividend yields about 2.8%.

Why Amazon made the list

AWS is the main reason. Its revenue rose 39% year over year to $46.0 billion in the third quarter, its fastest growth in almost five years.

The unit produced about 63% of Amazon's operating income on about 23% of its sales. Its backlog, which is contracted revenue not yet recognized, reached $578 billion. That is over three years of revenue at AWS's current $184 billion annual run rate.

Amazon CEO Andy Jassy was bullish on the company's third-quarter earnings call. "[W]e believe that AWS can grow north of 40% in each of 2027 and in 2028 and be a trillion-dollar revenue business in the next five to 10 years," he said.

The cost of that growth

The spending is heavy. Amazon expects around $220 billion in cash capital expenditures this year, and Jassy said the company plans to spend "meaningfully more" in 2027.

Free cash flow for the last 12 months was negative $42.4 billion. A year earlier it was positive $14.8 billion.

Micron and IBM

Micron's revenue more than tripled in fiscal 2026 to $133.2 billion, and net income climbed around tenfold to $85.0 billion. Its fiscal year ended Sept. 3, 2026. Fiscal fourth-quarter revenue was $54.2 billion, up from $41.5 billion the quarter before. Management expects about $61.5 billion in the current quarter.

At roughly $820 a share, Micron costs under 5 times analysts' fiscal 2027 earnings forecasts. The columnist reads that as investors pricing in a steep profit fall. In fiscal 2023, Micron's revenue was around half the prior year's and it lost $5.8 billion.

He takes comfort from contracts. Micron estimates that its 26 strategic customer agreements will make up over a third of its revenue through 2030, mostly with set pricing terms that often include floor and ceiling prices.

IBM is the slowest grower of the three. Management expects revenue to rise 4% to 5% at constant currency this year, a measure that strips out exchange-rate changes.

On Nov. 10, IBM and Microsoft announced Imagine Enterprise, a platform for businesses to build and manage artificial intelligence agents. IBM Consulting brings over 6,000 pre-built AI agents and assets.

Consulting is IBM's weak spot, with third-quarter revenue up just 2% at constant currency. Software grew 9% to $7.8 billion. IBM pays $1.69 a share in dividends each quarter and has paid dividends every year since 1916.