Business · Macro & Policy

Goldman Sachs Sees India Growing 7.2% in 2027, Ahead of China

Goldman Sachs Research forecasts India's economy will grow 7.2% in 2027, above the 6.8% consensus, while China is seen at 4.5%. The bank puts global growth at 2.8%, helped by AI spending and lower energy prices, with risks tilted to the downside.

By Elena Vance

November 15, 20262 min read

Goldman Sachs Sees India Growing 7.2% in 2027, Ahead of China

Goldman Sachs Research forecasts that India's economy will grow 7.2% in 2027, up against 4.5% for China, in its latest global outlook. The bank expects the world economy to expand 2.8% next year, slightly above the 2.7% it estimates for 2026.

Goldman Sachs sees India slowing from 7.9% growth in 2026, but its 2027 figure still sits above the consensus estimate of 6.8%. China's 4.5% is a little ahead of the 4.4% consensus. The bank cites exports as support, despite weak consumption and continued trouble in the property sector.

Energy and AI drive the outlook

Jan Hatzius, Chief Economist and Head of Goldman Sachs Research, said the forecast reflects a shift in the forces behind global activity: energy costs, technology investment and fiscal policy. "We expect another year of solid but unremarkable GDP growth in 2027," he said.

Energy prices weighed on growth in 2026. Goldman expects them to give modest support next year as supply conditions improve. Its commodity strategists see Brent crude falling to $78 per barrel by the end of 2027, with global liquefied natural gas prices easing in a similar way.

Europe is the exception. The bank expects it to face lingering pressure as earlier energy price increases are passed on to consumers.

A $1.8 trillion AI bill

Goldman projects nominal AI investment will rise to $1.8 trillion in 2027 from $1.1 trillion in 2026. It expects US hardware spending to account for an increase of more than $500 billion.

The bank estimates AI investment will add 0.4 percentage points to global GDP growth next year. For the US, it puts the contribution at 0.6 percentage points, after adjusting for undercounting of semiconductor investment and related intellectual property exports. Growth in that spending should slow, with the strongest year-on-year gain in the first half of 2027.

Goldman expects the United States, Japan and the United Kingdom to beat consensus growth estimates. South Korea and Taiwan should benefit from steady demand for AI-related exports. It forecasts US growth of 2.4% in 2027, against 2.3% in 2026.

Inflation, rates and risks

The bank expects global inflation to cool as energy prices ease. It sees US core personal consumption expenditures inflation, a price gauge that strips out food and energy, falling to 2.4% by the end of 2027 from 3.2% at the end of 2026.

Goldman expects further monetary tightening in some major economies early next year, followed by room for rate cuts as inflation slows.

Hatzius said risks remain tilted to the downside. He pointed to a possible escalation of the Iran conflict, wider fiscal deficits and weaker-than-expected AI investment. The report also lists constraints on AI infrastructure, regulatory uncertainty, credit market stress and softer demand as threats to the investment projections.