Markets · Stocks

Trade Setup November 16: Nifty 50 Eyes 25,800 After 0.6% Dip

India's Nifty 50 fell 0.6 percent on November 13 after hitting a swing high of 25,424. Ahead of Monday's session, analysts mark 25,800 as resistance and 25,000 as support, while options data points to 25,500 as a key ceiling.

By Alistair Sterling

November 15, 20262 min read

Trade Setup November 16: Nifty 50 Eyes 25,800 After 0.6% Dip — Trade Setup November 16

The trade setup for November 16 starts with a pause: India's Nifty 50 index fell 0.6 percent on November 13, retreating from a swing high of 25,424, according to analysts tracking the market ahead of Monday's session. The Nifty 50 is the benchmark gauge of 50 large Indian companies.

Experts said the wider trend still looks bullish. All key moving averages, which smooth out price swings over set periods, are sloping upward, and momentum indicators remain positive.

Levels analysts are watching

The index needs to reclaim and hold above 25,424 for further gains, analysts said. The upper Bollinger Band, a volatility measure, points to 25,800, while the 25,900-26,000 zone is expected to act as a crucial resistance area.

Immediate support sits at 25,000, followed by 24,800. Pivot-point resistance levels are 25,222, 25,267 and 25,340, and pivot-point support levels are 25,075, 25,030 and 24,956.

Foreign institutional investors continue what experts described as a heavy buying spree, and crude oil prices remain below $100 a barrel. On that basis, they said, the current consolidation and profit-taking may not last long.

Momentum cools slightly

The Nifty formed a bearish candle with a noticeable lower shadow on the daily chart. That pattern signals buying interest at lower levels despite the profit-taking. The index still traded above all key moving averages.

The relative strength index (RSI), which gauges how stretched a rally is, eased to 75.22 but stayed in what analysts call the super-bullish zone. The MACD, another momentum gauge, remains above its signal line. Its histogram bar has contracted for four straight sessions, a sign that upward momentum may be gradually fading.

Bank Nifty slips from nine-month high

The Bank Nifty closed at 61,034 after declining 0.79 percent from a nine-month high. It left a red candle with a lower wick, which again suggests buyers stepped in at lower prices.

The 50-day exponential moving average has moved above the 100-day and 200-day averages, a pattern known as a golden crossover. RSI eased to 75.7. The Bollinger Bands point to potential resistance at 61,640, and the MACD histogram contracted after expanding for 10 consecutive sessions.

Pivot-point resistance for the Bank Nifty is 61,237, 61,360 and 61,558, with support at 60,840, 60,717 and 60,518. Fibonacci retracement resistance, a method that projects levels from past price moves, is 61,765 and 63,550. Support on that measure is 59,080 and 56,928.

What options data shows

In weekly options, the 25,500 strike holds the most call open interest, at 1.03 crore contracts (one crore is 10 million). Analysts said it can act as a key short-term ceiling. The 25,400 strike follows with 82.71 lakh contracts, then 25,200 with 81.53 lakh. A lakh is 100,000.

Call writing was heaviest at the 25,200 strike, which added 54.58 lakh contracts. The 25,100 and 25,150 strikes added 33.98 lakh and 27.67 lakh. The largest call unwinding came at 25,650, which shed 6.35 lakh contracts.

Smallcaps jumped 3.6 percent and public-sector bank stocks surged 7.5 percent as the Sensex and Nifty extended weekly gains. Indian markets reopen Monday, November 16.