Burnham boost lifts Labour, but poll lead stays slim
Labour has picked up a clear but limited post-leadership lift after Andy Burnham took over, according to polling expert Sir John Curtice. The bounce was
Labour has picked up a clear but limited post-leadership lift after Andy Burnham took over, according to polling expert Sir John Curtice. The bounce was reinforced on Thursday when Labour won the Greater Manchester mayoral by-election convincingly.
Polls published over the past week have put Labour in the mid-20s on average, its best showing since the start of last year. That is up from 19% in late June, when Sir Keir Starmer said he was standing down.
Reform still close behind
But Curtice said the gain does not yet look big enough to make Labour comfortable. Reform is polling only narrowly behind, leaving Burnham’s party with a long way to go before it can think about a general election with confidence.
The numbers have also changed the mood in British politics. A Survation poll on Tuesday put Labour on 26% and Reform on 24%. More in Common, published on Monday, had Labour ahead 28% to 24%, while YouGov put both parties on 22%.
The Independent reported that Reform had led in more than 300 consecutive surveys since April 2025 before the latest shift. Leading polling expert Lord Hayward said the surveys had “changed the discourse of British politics”.
A familiar pattern after a handover
Curtice said the Burnham boost is not unusual. Recent mid-term changes of prime minister have often been followed by a rise in support for the party in power.
He pointed to Labour’s seven-point rise when Gordon Brown replaced Tony Blair in 2007, and the Conservatives’ six-point bounce when Boris Johnson succeeded Theresa May in 2019. He also noted earlier examples including John Major after Margaret Thatcher, and Theresa May after David Cameron.
The contrast with Burnham’s own by-election win was stark. In Makerfield, Labour had been 20 points behind Reform in the local elections on 7 May, but Burnham held every bit of Labour’s 45% share from the 2024 general election and increased it by 10 points.
That result came despite Labour’s national polling still sitting around 19% for much of the period, and despite heavy losses for the party in Scottish by-elections held the same day.
For now, Curtice’s verdict is simple: the bounce is real, but not massive. “There is no doubt there is a Burnham bounce,” he said. “It has happened quicker than most of these things do.”
