Oil Prices Rebound as Strait of Hormuz Supply Risks Persist
Oil prices recovered on Wednesday after falling to a four-week low, with Brent at $103.60 a barrel and U.S. crude at $95.98. Traders turned their focus back to…
Oil prices rebound middle as Brent crude traded at $103.60 a barrel on Wednesday, while West Texas Intermediate stood at $95.98, after prices recovered from a four-week low as traders refocused on Middle East supply risks.
The move followed a sharp decline on Tuesday, when hopes for progress in U.S.-Iran discussions weighed on prices. The latest figures on oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz now complicate expectations that Gulf supplies are returning to normal.
For energy buyers, the rebound signals that diplomatic talk has not removed the risk of disrupted shipments. Oil consultancy Vortexa said October exports through the strait were lower than in September, countering reports that Gulf exports had returned to, or exceeded, pre-war levels.
Why have oil prices rebounded?
Traders shifted attention from the U.S. midterm elections to the next step in the war, while energy consultancies cautioned against expecting Gulf supply to recover quickly. The market had fallen after reports that Iran might discuss issues previously considered non-negotiable.
Rystad Energy said it did not expect crude flows out of the Persian Gulf to return to normal anytime soon, even if the United States and Iran reach an agreement to end the war. The consultancy said: “We consider it unlikely that all these points of contention can be resolved within the coming year.”
That warning matters because a political agreement would not automatically restore shipments to normal levels. Traders are weighing the prospect of negotiations against the physical movement of oil from the region, which remains a key part of the supply picture.
What do the Strait of Hormuz figures show?
Vortexa said combined exports of crude oil, condensates and fuels averaged 17.1 million barrels daily in October, down from 18.9 million barrels in total daily exports in September.
The decline offers a concrete counterpoint to claims that Gulf exports had already recovered to pre-war levels. The figures do not settle how quickly flows might change, but they show that October shipments through the Strait of Hormuz were weaker than the prior month.
That is relevant beyond oil traders. Continued uncertainty over supply can feed into energy costs for businesses and households, while a sustained recovery in shipments would ease some pressure on the market. The latest data point, however, shows lower rather than higher exports month to month.
Prices had fallen to their lowest level in four weeks before staging Wednesday’s recovery. At the time of the report, Brent was at $103.60 per barrel and West Texas Intermediate at $95.98 per barrel.
Traders weigh mixed signals on the war
Phillip Nova analyst Priyanka Sachdeva said conflicting messages from President Trump were making it difficult for traders to settle on a clear view of the market’s direction. “President Trump's conflicting signals, with military strikes continuing alongside statements downplaying further escalation, have made it difficult for traders to build strong directional conviction,” she said.
The ING commodity team said the market still carried a substantial risk premium because of the strong oil flows from the Persian Gulf. The team also cautioned against optimism about the war ending, despite recent positive signals from both the United States and Iran.
Those competing forces leave prices sensitive to both diplomacy and supply data. Tuesday’s decline reflected hopes of discussions; the subsequent recovery followed a renewed focus on the region’s oil flows and the uncertainty over when they may return to normal.
Vortexa’s latest comparison puts October exports at 17.1 million barrels daily, below September’s 18.9 million.
