Oceans, Forests Absorbed Roughly Half of CO2 Since 1990, Study Says
A study published November 12, 2026 in Science finds oceans took up 35% of fossil fuel carbon dioxide since 1990 and plants on land 13%. The ocean sink is growing, the researchers say, while the land sink has not expanded as most computer models predicted.
The world's oceans have absorbed 35% of carbon dioxide emissions from fossil fuels since 1990, and forests and other plants have taken up another 13%, according to a study published November 12, 2026 in the journal Science. The oceans and forests absorbed roughly half of those emissions, slowing the pace of warming.
The authors, a team of carbon cycle scientists, say the pattern is changing. The ocean sink has grown as emissions rose, but that growth may slow in the coming decades. The land sink has not grown at all.
A different way to measure carbon sinks
Tracking how much carbon the planet absorbs is hard. The researchers describe it as difficult and prohibitively expensive, because conditions vary widely between ocean regions and forests, and from one year to the next.
Computer models help but have limits. Satellites cannot see through clouds, and they cannot see what happens in soil or the middle and deep ocean.
The team took another route. They combined high-precision measurements of atmospheric oxygen with measurements of atmospheric carbon dioxide.
How oxygen gives it away
The method works because land, oceans and fossil fuel burning each affect oxygen differently. Burning fossil fuels produces carbon dioxide and consumes oxygen. Plants on land release oxygen as they take up carbon dioxide to grow. Oceans take up carbon dioxide without any matching release of oxygen.
Measure both gases in the air, the authors say, and the ocean and land sinks can be separated. They describe it as solving two equations with two unknowns, using what is known about global budgets of both gases.
What the data showed
The results surprised the authors. Most computer model simulations show the land sink rising over time to keep pace with fossil fuel emissions. The new data did not.
They did find an ocean sink larger than most models predicted, and it has been increasing as emissions grow. The authors called the overall picture surprising and sobering.
Why it matters for climate policy
If the current trends hold, people will lean more heavily on the oceans to slow climate change in the coming decades. A weaker ocean sink would make that harder.
The findings also bear on how governments plan. Countries use remaining carbon budgets, the amount of carbon dioxide that can still be emitted while holding global temperatures below agreed levels. Those budgets depend on how much the oceans and land keep absorbing.
The authors say scientists still do not fully understand how these sinks will behave in the future. They point to rising temperatures that fuel heat waves, fires, storms, floods and droughts as the reason the question matters.
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