House Incumbents Are Losing Primaries at a Pace Not Seen in Decades
Nine House incumbents have lost their primaries in 2026, the highest total outside a national redistricting year since 1970. The latest came Thursday, when Rep.
Nine House incumbents have lost their primaries in 2026, the highest total outside a national redistricting year since 1970. The latest came Thursday, when Rep. Andy Ogles, R-Tenn., fell in his primary race.
The tally points to an unusually rough election cycle for lawmakers in Washington, with more defeats still possible as primary contests continue. Voters in several races are backing change, and in some districts the anger is landing squarely on the people already holding the seats.
Fresh losses on both sides
The churn is not limited to one party. Incumbents from both parties have run into trouble as voters pick challengers over familiar names, a sign of how unsettled the political mood has become at home.
That instability is showing up in races that were once seen as safer. It is also arriving at a time when Congress faces deep voter disillusionment, a backdrop that has made even entrenched lawmakers more vulnerable than usual.
Open seats widen the field
While incumbents struggle, other races are drawing crowded fields. In Minnesota, Democrats are defending the seat that will be vacated by Sen. Tina Smith, who decided not to seek re-election. The governor’s race there is also wide open after Gov. Tim Walz’s unexpected decision not to seek re-election. Sen. Amy Klobuchar has emerged as a top Democratic contender, while the Republican field includes at least nine candidates.
Wisconsin is headed into a similarly open contest after Gov. Tony Evers, a Democrat with a record of winning tight races in a presidential battleground, chose not to seek a third term. Democrats have a large field, while President Donald Trump has endorsed Rep. Tom Tiffany on the Republican side.
National stakes keep rising
In Alaska, Democrats have recruited Mary Peltola, the former representative for the state’s at-large district, for a likely matchup with incumbent Sen. Dan Sullivan, a Republican. And in the House, Republicans are hoping to make Oregon’s 5th District competitive in the fall, where two candidates are seeking the chance to challenge Democratic Rep. Janelle Bynum.
With primaries still unfolding, the number of defeated incumbents could rise again before the general election gets fully underway. For now, nine is already the sharpest wave of House turnover seen outside a redistricting year in more than half a century.
