US-Iran ceasefire pact expires with talks stalled and Gulf shipping in focus
The US-Iran memorandum of understanding that was meant to halt months of fighting expired on Monday, and there is little sign either side wants to
The US-Iran memorandum of understanding that was meant to halt months of fighting expired on Monday, and there is little sign either side wants to keep it alive. Both Washington and Tehran have spent weeks accusing each other of breaking the deal.
The lapse leaves the Gulf’s shipping lanes in an uneasy place. Oil and gas exports were hit hard during more than three months of war, and the Strait of Hormuz — one of the world’s most important waterways — remains central to any next step.
Talks frozen, mediators still active
Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said on Telegram on Saturday that Tehran had not decided whether to restart negotiations with the United States. That was the clearest signal yet that a quick return to the table is unlikely.
Even so, Qatar and Pakistan have kept exchanging messages with Iran, trying to keep some diplomatic channel open. Araghchi also said Iran was working with Oman on a separate arrangement for new shipping routes through the Strait of Hormuz, but he tied that effort to the chance of a political settlement.
A pact born out of rare talks
The agreement was signed on June 17 by US President Donald Trump and Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian after rare high-level talks hosted by Pakistan. It was intended to stop a war that had already killed thousands and crippled commercial movement across the Gulf.
For shipping companies and energy markets, the stakes remain obvious. The Gulf’s oil and gas traffic depends heavily on stable passage through the Strait of Hormuz, and any breakdown in diplomacy quickly echoes far beyond the region.
Trump signals a harder line
On the US side, Trump told supporters in New York on Friday that the United States would soon claim the strategically vital waterway for itself. The remark sharpened the uncertainty around the truce just as the deadline passed.
For now, the talks sit in limbo. Iran says it has not decided on a restart, mediators are still shuttling messages, and the deal that briefly lowered the temperature in the Gulf is now expired.
